24/01/2008

Forecasts for US Dollar

The Dollar has been falling since 2001. In the past few years the depreciation has picked up.

The dollar's weakness can be attributed to various factors

Current account deficit of over 5% of GDP
Falling interest rates in the US
Weakness in housing market due to mortgage defaults. (Falling house prices is one of the main reasons for lower interest rates
America no longer seen as a 'good' place to invest and save.
People increasingly diversifying out of dollar as world's reserve currency.

Forecasts for Future of Dollar

Dollar vs Yuan

The Dollar is likely to continue to fall against the Chinese Yuan, the Chinese need to allow an appreciation of their currency to prevent overheating. The trade surplus and different interest rates will also lead to a continued devaluation of the dollar

Dollar vs Euro.

The Dollar has already devalued so much against the Euro, it is uncertain how long this can continue. US exports to Europe are boooming because it is so competitive. The Euro economy may face strains under such a high currency, and therefore, there will be downward pressure on interest rates and the Euro in the future

Dollar vs Pound Sterling

The Pound sterling is facing many of the same weaknesses of the dollar. The UK is experiencing an increasing current account deficit. UK interest rates are also likely to fall as the economy and housing market slow down.

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